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基于TCN-LSTM模型的深基坑变形预测研究

Research on Deformation Monitoring and Prediction of Deep Foundation Pits Based on TCN-LSTM Model

  • 摘要: 由于深基坑变形发展趋势受复杂地质条件及动态施工环境影响,为保障基坑安全而对深基坑变形开展精准预测,是亟待突破的工程难题。为实现高精度与强鲁棒性的变形预测,该研究提出一种融合时序卷积网络(TCN)与长短期记忆网络(LSTM)的混合深度学习模型(TCN-LSTM)。该模型通过TCN中的扩张因果卷积操作提取多尺度时序特征,并利用LSTM的门控机制建模长期依赖与非线性的动态演化过程。TCN与LSTM的跨模态集成有效增强了模型的特征表达与泛化能力。基于广州某医院深基坑工程的实测数据开展对比实验,结果表明:所提出的TCN-LSTM模型在拟合优度(R2)、均方误差(MSE)与平均绝对误差(MAE)三项指标上均显著优于传统RNN、LSTM及CNN-LSTM模型,其R2分别提升97.43%、80.59%及11.38%,MSE分别降低33.01%、23.66%与10.13%,MAE分别降低57.81%、49.00%与35.46%,同时表现出优异的噪声鲁棒性。该研究为深基坑变形预测提供了一种可靠的解决方案,对工程风险的智能感知与主动防控具有重要理论价值与工程应用前景。

     

    Abstract: Due to the influence of complex geological conditions and dynamic construction environments on the deformation development trend of deep foundation pits, accurately predicting the deformation of deep foundation pits to ensure their safety is an urgent engineering challenge that needs to be addressed. To achieve high-precision and strong robustness in deformation prediction, this study proposes a hybrid deep learning model (TCN-LSTM) that integrates Temporal Convolutional Networks (TCN) and Long Short-Term Memory Networks (LSTM). This model extracts multi-scale temporal features through the dilated causal convolution operation in TCN, and utilizes the gating mechanism of LSTM to model long-term dependencies and nonlinear dynamic evolution processes. The cross-modal integration of TCN and LSTM effectively enhances the model's feature representation and generalization capabilities. Comparative experiments based on measured data from a deep foundation pit project at a hospital in Guangzhou show that the proposed TCN-LSTM model significantly outperforms traditional RNN, LSTM, and CNN-LSTM models in terms of goodness of fit (R2), mean squared error (MSE), and mean absolute error (MAE). Specifically, R2 increases by 97.43%, 80.59%, and 11.38%, respectively; MSE decreases by 33.01%, 23.66%, and 10.13%, respectively; and MAE decreases by 57.81%, 49.00%, and 35.46%, respectively. Additionally, the model exhibits excellent noise robustness. This study provides a reliable solution for deep foundation pit deformation prediction and holds significant theoretical value and engineering application prospects for intelligent perception and proactive prevention and control of engineering risks.

     

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