高级检索

基于DEMATEL-ISM的地铁隧道施工风险影响因素分析

Analysis of the Influence Factors in Metro Tunnel Construction Based on DEMATEL-ISM

  • 摘要: 随着城市地铁建设规模不断扩大,隧道施工安全风险管控的重要性日益凸显。针对当前地铁隧道施工风险评估普遍存在因素间因果链条复杂、演化机理不清的问题,本研究从人员、设备、技术、环境、管理因素角度出发构建评价指标体系,采用DEMATEL法分析因素中心度和原因度,明确各因素的重要程度及其因果属性,并结合ISM法构建层次结构图,厘清各因素间的层级划分与风险传导路径。研究结果表明:地铁隧道施工各因素间相互作用,层级分明。其中,A2施工规范程度是核心因素,对风险形成起主导作用;E4项目管理人员管理水平、E3隐患排查管理等8项因素为间接传导因素;A3专业技能水平、D3周边管线及建筑物等6项因素为直接因素,易直接诱发事故。基于此,本研究提出“锚定风险源头、阻断风险传导、守住最后防线”的管控建议,旨在为地铁隧道施工风险管控提供一定的理论依据和参考。

     

    Abstract: With the continuous expansion of urban subway construction scales, the importance of safety risk management for tunnel construction is increasingly prominent. To address the common problems of complex causal chains between factors and unclear evolutionary mechanisms in current risk assessments of subway tunnel construction, this study constructs an evaluation index system from the perspectives of personnel, equipment, technology, environment, and management. The DEMATEL method is adopted to analyze the centrality and causality of each factor, clarifying their importance and causal attributes. Combined with the ISM method, a hierarchical structure diagram is established to clarify the hierarchical relationships among factors and the risk transmission paths. The research results show that the factors in subway tunnel construction interact with each other and are clearly hierarchical. Among them, A2 (construction standardization degree) is the core factor, playing a dominant role in risk formation; eight factors including E4 (management level of project managers) and E3 (hidden danger investigation and management) are indirect transmission factors; six factors including A3 (professional skill level) and D3 (surrounding pipelines and buildings) are direct factors that can directly induce accidents. Based on this, this study proposes a risk control strategy of "anchoring the risk source, blocking risk transmission, and guarding the final defense line", aiming to provide a theoretical basis and reference for risk management in subway tunnel construction.

     

/

返回文章
返回