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基于机器学习的边坡稳定性预测模型性能研究

Study on the Performance of Machine Learning-based Models for Slope Stability Prediction

  • 摘要: 边坡稳定性是滑坡、路基塌陷等工程地质问题的关键影响因素。本研究基于文献中的168组边坡实测数据,以边坡高度、边坡倾角、单位重度、粘聚力、内摩擦角、孔隙压力比为输入参数,稳定状态(Stable/Failure)为预测目标,采用LightGBM、XGBoost、SVM和MLP四种机器学习模型进行预测分析。通过Spearman等级相关分析评估了输入特征之间的相关性。其次,使用F1分数、准确率和AUC值评估了模型的预测性能。模型性能评估显示,集成学习模型(XGBoost和LightGBM)的预测效果显著优于SVM和MLP,其中XGBoost在测试集的AUC值(0.997)和F1分数(0.971)略高于LightGBM(AUC=0.985,F1=0.963)。特征重要性分析表明,边坡高度和边坡倾角对稳定性影响最大,其次是粘聚力与内摩擦角。最后,通过XGBoost模型部分依赖图进一步揭示了各输入参数对边坡稳定性的影响规律。

     

    Abstract: Slope stability is a critical influencing factor for engineering geological problems such as landslides and subgrade collapses. This study is based on 168 sets of measured slope data in the literature, with slope height, slope inclination angle, unit weight, cohesion, internal friction angle, and pore pressure ratio as input parameters, and stable/failure as the prediction objective. Four machine learning models, LightGBM, XGBoost, SVM, and MLP, were used for prediction and analysis. The correlation between input features was evaluated by Spearman correlation analysis. Subsequently, the prediction performance of models was evaluated by F1 score, accuracy, and AUC value. The model performance evaluation revealed that the ensemble learning models (XGBoost and LightGBM) outperformed than SVM and MLP models. Specifically, XGBoost made the slightly higher AUC value (0.997) and F1 score (0.971) on the testing set while compared to LightGBM (AUC=0.985, F1=0.963). Feature importance analysis revealed that slope height and slope angle have the greatest impact on stability, followed by cohesion and internal friction angle. Finally, the partial dependency graph of the XGBoost model was used to further reveal the influence of various input parameters on slope stability.

     

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