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我国装配式建筑发展速度影响因素分析

Analysis of Factors Affecting the Development Speed of Prefabricated Buildings in China

  • 摘要: 装配式建筑作为一种新型建筑模式,因其高效、环保、节能等优势在全球范围内迅速发展。然而,其发展速度在不同地区和时间段存在显著差异。为揭示影响装配式建筑发展速度的关键因素并提出针对性建议,本研究从投入和产出的角度出发,对装配式建筑的发展效率进行量化评估。本研究构建了全面的投入产出指标体系,运用DEA模型对2011年至2022年装配式建筑的发展效率进行测度分析,揭示其时空差异和变化趋势。在此基础上,利用Tobit回归模型进一步分析各因素的影响机制。研究结果表明,扩大装配式建筑的市场规模、完善装配式建筑产业链供给和推动城镇化进程均有助于提高装配式建筑的发展速度,而人均可支配收入的增加则会对其发展速度产生一定的抑制作用。基于以上分析,本文提出了一系列针对性的对策建议,旨在为提高装配式建筑的发展速度提供科学的理论依据和实践指导,以促进其可持续发展。

     

    Abstract: As a novel construction mode, prefabricated buildings have rapidly developed worldwide due to their advantages in efficiency, environmental friendliness, and energy savings. However, their development speed varies significantly across different regions and time periods. To reveal the key factors influencing the development speed of prefabricated buildings and propose targeted recommendations, this study quantifies their development efficiency from the perspective of inputs and outputs. A comprehensive input-output indicator system was constructed, and the Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) model was employed to measure and analyze the development efficiency of prefabricated buildings from 2011 to 2022, revealing its spatiotemporal variations and evolutionary trends. Building on this, the Tobit regression model was further utilized to analyze the influencing mechanisms of various factors. The findings indicate that expanding the market scale of prefabricated buildings, improving the supply support of the prefabricated building industrial chain, and advancing urbanization all contribute to enhancing the development speed of prefabricated buildings. Conversely, an increase in per capita disposable income exerts a certain inhibitory effect on its advancement. Based on the above analysis, this paper proposes a series of targeted countermeasures and suggestions. The aim is to provide a scientific theoretical basis and practical guidance for accelerating the development of prefabricated buildings, thereby promoting their sustainable development.

     

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