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基于改进贝叶斯模型的高层建筑火灾风险评估

High Rise Building Fire Risk Assessment Based on Improved Bayesian Model

  • 摘要: 高层建筑火灾风险评估对于保障人员生命安全和减少财产损失至关重要。传统评估方法存在局限性,无法全面、系统地识别火灾风险的关键致灾因素及其相互作用。因此,本研究提出了一种基于解释结构模型(ISM)和贝叶斯网络(BN)的火灾风险评估方法,旨在更准确地评估高层建筑火灾风险。首先,从火灾致灾因素出发,基于经典事故致因理论,建立了包含电气因素、消防系统、建筑环境和消防管理等4个二级因素以及22个三级因素的高层建筑火灾风险评估指标体系。接着,利用ISM对火灾风险的直接影响关系进行梳理,构建了高层建筑火灾的分层结构,并以此为基础映射得到BN模型,建立了ISM-BN火灾风险分析模型。最后,对ISM-BN模型进行敏感性分析、正向推理和逆向推理,以识别影响高层建筑火灾风险的关键致灾因素,并提出相应对策措施。结果表明:通过模型分析,识别出防排烟系统S8、消防给水及消火栓系统S9、电气设备S3、和安全疏散S17等是导致高层建筑火灾风险发生的关键因素。特别是当防排烟系统发生故障时,火灾的发生概率和风险程度均显著增加。本研究提出的ISM-BN模型能有效识别高层建筑火灾风险的关键致灾因素及其影响机制。基于分析结果,提出了针对性的火灾风险防控对策措施,为提升高层建筑消防安全管理水平提供了理论依据和决策支持。

     

    Abstract: The risk assessment of high-rise building fires is crucial for ensuring the safety of personnel and reducing property damage. Traditional assessment methods have limitations and cannot comprehensively and systematically identify the key causative factors and their interactions of fire risk. Therefore, this study proposes a fire risk assessment method based on the Interpretive Structural Model (ISM) and Bayesian Network (BN), aiming to more accurately evaluate the fire risk of high-rise buildings. This study first starts from the causes of fire disasters and establishes a high-rise building fire risk assessment index system based on classical accident causation theory, which includes four secondary factors such as electrical factors, fire protection systems, building environment, and fire management, as well as 22 tertiary factors. Subsequently, the direct impact relationship of ISM on fire risk was analyzed, and a layered structure for high-rise building fires was constructed. Based on this, a BN model was mapped and an ISM-BN fire risk analysis model was established. Finally, sensitivity analysis, forward reasoning, and backward reasoning are conducted on the ISM-BN model to identify key disaster causing factors that affect the risk of high-rise building fires, and corresponding countermeasures are proposed. The results indicate that through model analysis, the key factors leading to the risk of high-rise building fires are identified as the smoke control system S8, fire water supply and hydrant system S9, electrical equipment S3, and safety evacuation S17. Especially when the smoke control system malfunctions, the probability and risk of fire occurrence significantly increase. The ISM-BN model proposed in this study can effectively identify the key disaster causing factors and their influencing mechanisms of high-rise building fire risk. Based on the analysis results, targeted fire risk prevention and control measures have been proposed, providing theoretical basis and decision support for improving the fire safety management level of high-rise buildings.

     

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