Monitoring and Prediction Analysis of Runway Subsidence in a Mountainous Area

The rapid economic development has brought about a new round of development bottleneck for the infrastructure of domestic airports, making it imperative to reconstruct and expand them. The main factors affecting the construction period include the thickness of the base fill, long settlement periods, and difficulty in predicting settlement after construction. In order to meet current airport construction needs, this paper utilizes curve method to conduct fitting regression prediction analysis on monitoring data from each measuring point based on level data and physical property of high fill settlement. It compares settlement prediction results from the entire time history curve with those from the gentle section of the process in order to determine pavement construction time and predict post-construction pavement settlement. The runway settlement prediction results are highly reliable as they align well with field monitoring data, providing a basis for estimating pavement construction time and offering valuable experience for similar civil aviation high fill projects.