Research on Dynamic Evaluation Method of Construction Enterprises' on-site Contract Performance Capabilities Based on Bayesian Method

The construction enterprise is the final entity responsible for and implementing the construction project, and its on-site performance behavior is directly related to the achievement of the goals of the construction project. This article proposes to use the Bayesian probability model to dynamically evaluate the on-site contract performance capabilities of construction companies, update the performance evaluation based on the construction company's periodic performance behavior, and provide a basis for the dynamic management of construction units. The model selects contract execution, construction period, quality, safety, and labor rights indicators to evaluate the contract performance behavior of construction companies. The normal distribution function is used to measure the probability of performance conditions, the probability distribution of the company's performance status is determined through project scoring statistics, and the performance evaluation probability is updated based on the performance deduction points within the company's cycle. Project implementation cases show that the model evaluation system has the effect of cumulative inspections. Good performance behaviors require continuous accumulation to significantly improve the evaluation results; an occasional low-scoring behavior will not significantly reduce the evaluation results, but it will decrease after multiple accumulations. The evaluation results require more good performance behaviors to make up for it.